The Best Bets in Craps
A four-bet system that keeps the house edge under 0.4%, why the odds bet is the only free lunch in the casino, and how much the exciting bets actually cost per hour.
Craps rewards discipline more than any other pit game, because the difference between the best and worst available bet is a factor of forty-five. Getting this right is not about finding an edge — there isn’t one — but about not paying ten times more than you need to for the same two hours at the same table.
The whole strategy, in four bets
1. Pass line, before the come-out. 1.41% on its own. This is your entry ticket; its real job is to unlock the next bet.
2. Maximum odds behind it, once a point is set. Zero house edge. At a 3-4-5× table this takes the combined edge to 0.37%. Always take the maximum you can comfortably cover — the whole point of the flat bet is to earn the right to place this one.
3. One or two come bets with full odds. A come bet is a pass line bet that starts on the next roll, giving you a second and third working point at the same 0.37%. Two come bets is plenty; three ties up a lot of money on the table when a seven arrives.
4. Nothing else.
That is the entire optimal approach. It is not complicated and it is not clever — its virtue is that it never pays more than 0.37%.
What the odds bet actually is
Every other bet in a casino pays less than true odds. That gap is the house edge. The odds bet pays exactly true odds: 2:1 on a point of 4 or 10, 3:2 on 5 or 9, 6:5 on 6 or 8.
Casinos offer it because it is not available on its own. You must first make a line bet with a 1.41% edge, and the odds bet only dilutes that edge across a larger wager — it never removes it. The house is trading a lower percentage for a much larger handle.
For the player, taking maximum odds is unambiguously correct. It is the only place in a casino where the next dollar you wager is priced fairly.
| Table rule | Pass + max odds |
|---|---|
| No odds offered | 1.41% |
| 2× | 0.61% |
| 3-4-5× | 0.37% |
| 10× | 0.18% |
A 10× table with a $5 minimum is a better game than a 3-4-5× table with a $25 minimum, if you can cover the odds.
What the fun bets cost
Assume a $10 bettor at a table averaging 100 rolls an hour.
| Approach | Effective edge | Cost per hour |
|---|---|---|
| Pass + 3-4-5× odds + two come bets | 0.37% | ~$4 |
| Pass line only, no odds | 1.41% | ~$14 |
| Place 6 and 8 | 1.52% | ~$15 |
| Pass + hardways on every number | ~6% | ~$60 |
| Working the proposition box | ~12% | ~$120 |
The prop bets are not a small indulgence. Betting $5 on the hardways and a $5 any-seven each roll costs more per hour than most people’s entire craps budget for the night, and it does it quietly, in five-dollar increments that never feel like the moment you lost the money.
Things that do not work
Dice control. The claim is that a practised shooter can influence the dice enough to change the distribution. The house edge on the pass line is 1.41%, so the influence would need to be measurable and consistent across thousands of throws to matter. No controlled study has ever demonstrated it. The dice bounce off a pyramid-studded back wall specifically to make it impossible, and casinos enforce the wall hit for that reason.
The “5-Count” and similar shooter-selection methods. These propose betting only on shooters who survive a few rolls. Each roll is independent; a shooter who has made four passes is exactly as likely to seven-out on the next roll as one who just picked up the dice. What these systems do accomplish is reducing your total action, which reduces your total expected loss — but so does simply betting less.
Progression systems. Martingale, Iron Cross, and every variant. They change the shape of your results, never the expectation. Why.
The Iron Cross specifically — field plus place 5, 6 and 8, covering everything except the 7 — is worth naming because it is widely recommended. It wins on about 70% of rolls, which is its entire appeal, and carries a blended house edge around 2.4%, roughly six times the pass-plus-odds line. You win constantly and lose steadily.
Money management that actually helps
None of this changes the edge. It changes whether you are still playing in an hour.
- Bring a session amount you are prepared to lose, and leave the rest elsewhere.
- Size the flat bet so you can afford full odds. A $10 flat with $50 odds on a 6 needs a bankroll that treats $60 as one unit, not $10.
- Take odds down when you want to reduce exposure, never the flat bet. The flat bet is the expensive part; the odds are free.
- Colour up and leave on a number you set beforehand. The table gives you no signal that it is time to go.
The one-sentence version
Bet the pass line, take maximum odds, add one or two come bets with odds, and ignore the middle of the table.
Full pricing: craps odds and payouts.