Odds Desk

Baccarat Rules

Baccarat rules including the full third-card table the dealer follows, the exact odds on banker, player and tie, and why the game has no strategy beyond one sentence.

Baccarat has three bets, no decisions, and one of the smallest house edges in the casino. The apparent complexity — the drawing rules, the ritual, the scorecards — is all executed by the dealer or is decorative.

Card values

CardValue
Ace1
2 through 9Face value
10, Jack, Queen, King0

Hand totals are taken modulo 10 — only the last digit counts. A 7 and an 8 total 15, which is a 5. A 9 and a king total 9. The best possible hand is 9; there is no bust.

The deal

Two hands are dealt: Player and Banker. These are labels for the two hands, not for you and the house. You may bet on either, or on a tie, and the labels have no relationship to who is dealt what.

  1. All bets are placed.
  2. Two cards go to Player, two to Banker.
  3. If either hand totals 8 or 9 — a natural — both hands stand and the round is over.
  4. Otherwise, the drawing rules below are applied.
  5. The higher total wins. Equal totals are a tie.

The third-card rules

The dealer applies these mechanically. There is no choice for anyone.

Player hand first:

Player totalAction
0–5Draws a third card
6–7Stands
8–9Natural, stands — round over

Banker hand, if the Player stood on 6 or 7:

Banker totalAction
0–5Draws
6–7Stands

Banker hand, if the Player drew a third card — the banker’s action depends on the value of the card the Player drew:

Banker totalDraws when Player’s third card isStands when it is
0, 1, 2Always draws
30, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 98
42, 3, 4, 5, 6, 70, 1, 8, 9
54, 5, 6, 70, 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
66, 70, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9
7Always stands

The asymmetry is the whole game. The Banker acts after the Player and with knowledge of what the Player drew, which is why the Banker hand wins more often, and why it carries a commission.

The odds

Eight-deck shoe, the standard game:

OutcomeProbability
Banker wins45.86%
Player wins44.62%
Tie9.52%

Excluding ties, Banker wins 50.68% of decided hands.

BetPaysHouse edge
Banker1:1 less 5% commission1.06%
Player1:11.24%
Tie8:114.36%
Tie9:1 (rare)4.84%

The banker calculation

EV = (0.4586 × 0.95) + (0.0952 × 0) + (0.4462 × −1) = 0.43567 − 0.44625 = −0.010581.06%

Ties push, which is why they appear with a zero payoff rather than as losses.

Note what the commission is doing. Without it, the banker bet would return 0.4586 − 0.4462 = +1.24% to the player. The 5% is not a fee for the privilege of a good bet; it is the mechanism that makes an otherwise player-favourable bet profitable for the house — and it slightly overshoots, leaving 1.06% rather than zero.

Side bets

Every commonly offered baccarat side bet is significantly worse than the main game. Typical figures:

Side betTypical house edge
Player Pair / Banker Pair10.36%
Perfect Pair17.07%
Either Pair14.54%
Dragon Bonus (player)2.65%
Dragon Bonus (banker)9.37%
Big / Small4.35% / 5.27%

Pay tables vary between casinos; the ordering does not.

Strategy

Bet banker. Every hand. Ignore the scorecard. Never bet tie.

That is the complete optimal strategy for baccarat, and it is why the game is popular with players who want low cost and no cognitive load. The 0.18% you give up by betting player instead is small; the 13.3% you give up by betting tie is not.

Why the scorecards do not help

Baccarat tables supply printed grids — the big road, the bead plate, the big eye boy — for recording past results, and players track them intently. The shoe is shuffled, the cards are dealt, and each hand is independent of every hand before it. A run of nine bankers tells you exactly nothing about the tenth hand.

Card counting in baccarat is theoretically possible and practically worthless. The most favourable counts shift the edge by hundredths of a percent, arise rarely, and would require tracking the entire shoe for a return smaller than the cost of the time.

Punto banco, mini-baccarat, and the rest

Cost comparison: house edge across every game.

FAQ

Do I need to know the third-card rules?

No. The dealer applies them; you have no decision at any point in the hand. They are published here because knowing them makes the game legible, not because you need them to play.

Why does banker cost a 5% commission?

Because the banker hand wins more often than the player hand — 45.86% against 44.62% — as a consequence of acting second under the drawing rules. Without the commission, banker would be a positive-expectation bet. The 5% is what converts a player advantage into a 1.06% house edge.

Does the scorecard help?

No. Every hand is independent of every hand before it. The 'big road' scorecards handed out at baccarat tables record a pattern in past results that has no bearing on the next deal. They exist because they make players comfortable betting more.

Is the tie bet ever worth it?

At 8:1, the house edge is 14.36% — one of the worst bets on the casino floor. At 9:1, offered in a few places, it drops to 4.84%, which is still nearly five times the cost of the banker bet.